| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Cincinnati | 15-34 | 1527.1 | +10.4 | 1537.5 | 28.6% |
| 2 | Sep 11 2026 | W | Rutgers | 28-21 | 1537.5 | +12.4 | 1549.9 | 53.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Maine | 22-16 | 1549.9 | -48.4 | 1501.5 | 97.2% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Virginia Tech | 14-21 | 1501.5 | +24.2 | 1525.7 | 11.9% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | SMU | 16-25 | 1525.7 | -6.8 | 1518.8 | 17.7% |